XRP Outpaces Majors in Holiday Session as IBIT Options Skew Defensive Above Spot

XRP led the majors midday Saturday, up 3.3% to $1.17 on a 3.9% intraday range, while bitcoin held $62,939 and ether reclaimed $1,790. Beneath the drift, IBIT options open interest shows a defensive tilt — the $55 put strike (well above the ETF's $34.85 spot) carries the single largest put OI at 63,737 contracts, suggesting hedging activity against a stretched upside scenario rather than directional conviction.

Market Pulse

Spot majors are drifting higher into the July 4 holiday session. Bitcoin trades at $62,939, up 0.6% on a compressed 1.1% intraday range. Ether is the stronger of the two large caps at $1,790.97 (+1.9%, 2.6% range), while XRP outpaces the board at $1.1722 (+3.3%). Solana lags flat-to-negative at $82.24.

Binance perpetual funding is modestly positive across BTC (+10.4% annualized), ETH (+5.7%), and SOL (+5.3%), with XRP the outlier at -2.3% annualized despite leading spot returns — a configuration historically associated with spot-led rallies where perp positioning has not yet caught up to underlying strength.

Options Positioning

InflowScan data on today's ETF options chain shows a bifurcated institutional posture. IBIT (underlying $34.85) prints a call-heavy volume P/C of 0.565 but an OI P/C of 0.781, with the largest single put line concentrated at the $55 strike (OI 63,737) — a level roughly 58% above spot, consistent with upside-scenario hedging or covered-call overlay rather than downside protection. Top call OI sits at $45 (82,906 contracts), framing near-term upside interest.

FBTC reads more directional: volume P/C at 0.420 and OI P/C at 0.542, with the $100 call strike (OI 10,124) drawing the heaviest positioning. ETHA options carry the session's highest 30-day IV at 53.8%, with put OI stacked at the $10 strike (70,821 contracts) against a $12.83 spot — a defensive floor consistent with realized-vol expectations rising into July. XRPC shows a lopsided call-skew — OI P/C of 0.025, top call strike at $22 — reflective of one-way positioning in the newer product.

Narrative

Holiday tape is running on thin flow, and the news dockets reflects it: no macro prints, no regulatory catalysts. Galaxy's public opposition to JPMorgan's dilution plan for Strategy is the session's most substantive institutional item, though the market reaction has been muted. Separately, InflowScan data on the stablecoin complex shows USDC contracting $317.6M in the past 24 hours against USDT roughly flat — a continuation of the sidelined-capital drawdown flagged in third-party coverage of stablecoin inflows hitting an 18-month low. The pattern points to redemption pressure rather than fresh capital staging, though single-day moves in a shortened session warrant caution before extrapolating.

Afternoon Watch

US markets closed for Independence Day — no domestic ETF creation/redemption activity; today's price action is offshore-perp and spot-driven.
XRP holding above $1.17 into the London close; a sustained bid would be historically associated with continued positive spot-perp basis given the negative funding print.
Weekend stablecoin supply prints — a second consecutive session of USDC contraction would extend the 18-month-low narrative into next week's flow desk conversations.