Market Overview
Risk came off across crypto majors Thursday. Bitcoin shed 3.4% to settle at $71,504, ether fell 2.0% to $2,016, and solana and XRP gave back 2.3% and 1.6% respectively. The selling pulled ETH back below the $2,100 handle it had defended through much of the prior week, while BTC still holds a 13.7% gain over the trailing 30 days. The breadth of the move — every major lower, stablecoin supply contracting in tandem — is more consistent with position reduction than with an asset-specific rotation.
Asset Price Analysis
Bitcoin's 3.4% drop was the steepest single-day decline among the majors and the clearest break in the recent uptrend. The $71,500 level is where spot now sits versus a 7-day change of -0.6%, meaning the past week's gains have been given back in a single session. Resistance that mattered on the way up — the $74,000 area — now sits as the first level to reclaim before the recent trend is intact again.
Ether's 2.0% slide takes it to $2,016, with the 7-day tape now -3.7% and the 30-day up just 3.7%. The failure to defend $2,100 leaves ETH testing the lower bound of its recent range; the next observable support sits near the round $2,000 figure. Solana held up better in relative terms, closing at $81.40 and still up 9.2% on the week and 15.6% on the month — the only major where the medium-term structure wasn't dented by Thursday's tape. XRP traded at $1.04, down 1.6% on the day but holding a 1.7% weekly gain and 8.4% over 30 days.
Stablecoin Flows
Dry powder contracted across both major dollar tokens. USDC supply fell by -$394M ↓ to $69.7 billion, and USDT shed -$78M ↓ to $175.6 billion, according to InflowScan data. A combined $472 million contraction coinciding with a broad risk-off session is consistent with capital exiting the system rather than being parked on the sidelines for redeployment — a pattern historically associated with the early phase of a drawdown rather than the end.
ETF Flows Context
Thursday's issuer flow data has not yet settled and will be reported in Friday's pre-market brief. For context, Wednesday's settled session saw spot crypto ETFs register -$437M ↓ in net outflows, according to InflowScan data, with BlackRock's IBIT leading redemptions at -$266M ↓ and ETHA shedding -$128M ↓. XRP coverage for Wednesday was partial — 8 of 9 funds reported, with XRPK still settling — so the XRP line should be read as near-complete rather than final.
The Wednesday outflow print preceded Thursday's price break by a full session. That sequencing — settled redemptions ahead of the spot drop — is consistent with ETF-channel repositioning leading price rather than reacting to it. Friday's settled figures will show whether the pace of redemptions accelerated into Thursday's weakness.
Outlook
Friday's pre-market brief will publish Thursday's settled ETF flows — the key data point for confirming or refuting the lead-from-flows read. Levels to watch on spot: BTC needs to reclaim the $74,000 area to repair the recent trend; ETH's hold or loss of $2,000 is the near-term pivot. Stablecoin supply direction into the weekend is the other tell — a second consecutive day of contraction would strengthen the risk-reduction read; a reversal to net issuance would suggest Thursday's sell-off drew fresh dollar capital back in.