ETF Flows Recap

Spot crypto ETFs logged -$153.1M ↓ in net outflows for Monday's settled session, according to InflowScan data. Tuesday's issuer reports have not yet published and are still settling. The redemption profile was concentrated: three funds carried the entire reported outflow, with no inflow prints on the tape.

Fidelity's FBTC led exits at -$83.6M ↓, followed by Grayscale's GBTC at -$54.9M ↓. On the ether side, Fidelity's FETH saw a smaller -$6.0M ↓ redemption. BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA did not post flows in Monday's data, and the absence of the usual IBIT bid is itself a tell — on prior down-flow sessions this quarter, IBIT has typically absorbed at least a fraction of competitor redemptions.

  • FBTC (Fidelity): -$83.6M ↓
  • GBTC (Grayscale): -$54.9M ↓
  • FETH (Fidelity): -$6.0M ↓

The concentration in Fidelity and Grayscale products, with Grayscale's higher-fee GBTC still bleeding, is consistent with fee-driven rotation rather than directional de-risking across the complex. That read is hedged until Tuesday's prints clear.

Market Overview

Bitcoin changes hands at $81,504, down 0.5% over 24 hours and 0.6% on the week. The 30-day picture remains constructive at +13.7%, but spot has gone sideways-to-lower since the ETF flow trend turned. Ether lags again, off 0.9% to $2,386.94 and down 3.7% on the week. Solana at $104.24 and XRP at $1.30 are each softer on the day but hold weekly gains.

The pattern through Monday's close looks more like consolidation than capitulation — spot has absorbed a sequence of redemption days without breaking the recent range.

Asset Price Analysis

BTC's hold of the $81,000 handle after a $153M outflow session points to steady spot bid underneath the ETF layer. Resistance sits at the prior week's $82,000-$83,000 shelf; a loss of $80,000 would open the next technical reference lower. The flow-vs-price divergence — exits without a corresponding spot flush — is the clearest signal on the tape.

ETH continues to underperform the complex. The $2,400 level that held through most of last week has flipped to near-term resistance, with $2,350 the next support reference. The 30-day gap between BTC (+13.7%) and ETH (+3.7%) has widened, and Monday's FETH redemption, modest as it was, extended the ether ETF channel's net-negative run.

SOL (+9.2% week, +15.6% month) and XRP (+1.7% week, +8.4% month) remain the relative outperformers. Both altcoin complexes are trading on their own flow narratives, with the newer SOL and XRP ETF cohorts not yet reporting Monday prints.

Stablecoin Flows

Combined USDT and USDC supply contracted by roughly $764M in the past 24 hours, per InflowScan data, with USDT shedding $430M and USDC down $334M. Supply contractions of this size are historically associated with dollar redemptions rather than capital being pushed back into risk, consistent with the ETF outflow prints.

Outlook

Tuesday's settled ETF prints are the first data point of the session. A second consecutive day of concentrated FBTC and GBTC outflows without an IBIT offset would strengthen the fee-rotation read; a return of the IBIT bid would reframe Monday as an idiosyncratic Fidelity-flow day.

Levels to watch on BTC: the $80,000 handle on the downside, $82,500 on the upside. On ETH, $2,350 support and $2,420 resistance frame the near-term range. Stablecoin supply trajectory remains the second-order tell — a continued drain would be consistent with risk-off positioning into month-end; a stabilization would suggest Monday's contraction was a one-session reset.